Racing Bulls have yet to confirm their driver line-up for the 2027 F1 season; Liam Lawson is at risk of losing his seat to F2 championship contender Nikola Tsolov despite the New Zealander having produced a fine run of results
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After a superb weekend at the Sao Paulo Grand Prix, Liam Lawson may have grabbed back control of his Racing Bulls seat.
Despite Lawson being on arguably the best run of form of his career and clearly outperforming his rookie team-mate Arvid Lindblad, there had been growing speculation over the first two legs of F1's Americas triple-header that Racing Bulls were going to replace the 24-year-old for the 2027 season.
The explanation for what on the surface would be a mystifying decision is that part of Racing Bulls' function as Red Bull's junior squad is to prepare young drivers from the organisation's academy for an opportunity with the senior team.
There's a highly-rated one in 19-year-old Bulgarian Nikola Tsolov awaiting an opportunity in F1 as he sees out the closing stages of an F2 championship battle.
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Perhaps more important than his F2 campaign was the fact that Tsolov impressed as he made his F1 practice debut in Mexico City, appearing to convince key figures that he is very much ready for motorsport's elite category.
Given the ultimate goal of the academy is to produce the next Max Verstappen, or at least another world champion, the fact Lawson has already had a go at Red Bull and failed to impress counts against him.
Lawson might be outpacing Lindblad at Racing Bulls, but there clearly remains hope that the 19-year-old Brit could develop into a driver that could cut it at Red Bull, where the second seat is currently occupied by Isack Hadjar, who has had a solid first campaign with the team.
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For those reasons, Lawson arrived in Sao Paulo under extreme pressure, which he had admittedly increased by getting into an untimely spat with Verstappen during practice in Mexico.
Verstappen attempted a pass to gain superior track position, but instead of swallowing his pride and allowing the Dutchman to complete the unnecessary manoeuvre, Lawson fought back and the pair then collided, before each being given a one-place grid penalty for the incident.
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More stinging than the penalty for Lawson was Verstappen, the most powerful individual in the Red Bull F1 system, reacting furiously as he told the media his former team-mate's actions weren't smart given he was 'fighting for his seat'.
A Lawson apology cleared the air before the race in Brazil, and since that moment the New Zealander hasn't put a foot wrong.
He drove a superb race in Mexico after starting at the back of the grid to finish seventh, ensuring he scores points in a fourth successive grand prix.
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That form carried over to Brazil where wet conditions provided a huge challenge for the drivers, as he qualified fifth before being promoted to third on the grid as a result of penalties for some of the usual front-running drivers.
He seized an opportunity at the start, taking advantage of an error by pole-sitter Lando Norris to go second on the first lap. After that, he maximised the pace in his car to finish seventh, impressively battling Charles Leclerc on the final lap in a duel that saw the Ferrari driver overtake him but later be penalised for causing a collision between the pair.
Perhaps more than ever, the consensus in the paddock after Sunday's race was, 'how on earth could Racing Bulls be considering dropping a driver delivering so well?'
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Speaking after the race, Lawson told Sky Sports F1 : "I appreciate all the support. I've seen it over the last few weeks. It's honestly really nice to see. Obviously, I would love it if it was more from a team.
"But at the moment I'm just trying to enjoy driving the car because, with everything else going on, I don't really know what else I'm meant to do. I don't really know what else I'm meant to say to you guys (the media)."
Whether or not the pressure put on the Red Bull and Racing Bulls hierarchy by Lawson's latest performance has told remains to be seen, but reports surfaced on Monday morning claiming he is now expected to keep his seat.
A further complicating element behind the saga is that the already unorthodox power structure at Racing Bulls (and Red Bull) has changed dramatically in the last 18 months.
Christian Horner was sacked as Red Bull team principal and Laurent Mekies was promoted from Racing Bulls to take his place in July 2025, before long-time Red Bull motorsport advisory Dr Helmut Marko, who had played a key role in driver line-up decision, was let go at the end of the season.
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Mekies insists that he is able to give "an opinion" but that the final decision lies with Racing Bulls team principal Alan Permane.
"I've said it several times, the Racing Bulls driver decision is down to Racing Bulls," Mekies said on Sunday in Brazil.
"As much as we run a common junior programme, we are in the unique position where when the good guys are coming out from Racing Bulls, we obviously have the possibility to get them to be promoted to Red Bull Racing, as we have done with Max and as we have done with Isack, but how we get to that point is down to them in terms of the F1 stint.
"When it comes to Liam, I can only congratulate him for another very strong weekend. He has been on a fantastic run."
Permane, who recently signed a contract extension himself, appeared to suggest that Red Bull could benefit from a more patient approach with its junior drivers than was shown under Horner and Marko's leadership.
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Lawson was promoted from Racing Bulls to Red Bull at the start of the 2025 season but then dropped after just two races with the senior team.
Permane said: "Red Bull's had a very successful young driver programme, and I think, if I want to be... and I don't want to be critical of it, but I think if you guys are critical of it, maybe sometimes the drivers haven't been able to have enough time to settle, or maybe some snap decisions have been made.
"We're trying to apply a little bit of science, and that takes some time. So, we are looking at everything and studying, analysing, and time is on our side."
Sky Sports F1 understands that Racing Bulls are intent on making a decision and announcing it before the next round, the Las Vegas Grand Prix, which takes place from November 19-21.
It remains unclear whether Permane himself has final say or whether Red Bull's shareholders will ultimately weigh in. There's the Thai Yoovidhya family, and then the bosses of Red Bull's sporting projects, led by Oliver Mintzlaff.
"We're not in a rush to do anything, and I'm very confident the right decision will be made," Permane added.
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"I realise it's frustrating for our drivers. I realise it's frustrating for everyone else, but we want to get it right, and we will get it right. I'm sure when we announce it in the coming weeks, everyone will be happy."
Mekies added on the topic: "It's a Racing Bulls decision. They have all the data, they are very experienced.
"Alan is a great guy. He understands racing better than most. It's probably fair that these guys are taking their time, because from a Red Bull perspective, there is no reason to rush."
Sky Sports F1's Karun Chandhok says that Lawson losing his seat would be "one of the most unjust" decisions made by an F1 team.
"If Liam Lawson gets sacked, it would be one of the most unjust in Formula 1," Chandhok said.
"He's done a fantastic job this season. He's come back carrying the mental baggage of being sacked from the Red Bull top team, went back to the Red Bull earlier this year for three races and did a good job there. And he's delivered really, really well.
"I get the junior team is a university to prepare drivers for the top team. Today, they are a strong midfield team, have their own identity, own sponsors, own reasons to be competitive and not just be there to train drivers up."
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Sky Sports F1's Martin Brundle explained that there is often more context to driver decisions that may necessarily meet the eye for media and fans.
"I remember starting to beat Michael Schumacher at Benetton and I got biffed at the end of the year," Brundle said.
"It happens in this business for any number of reasons, sometimes commercial reasons, political future, and the teams are thinking a long way ahead and all the pieces of the jigsaw fit together in a way that don't always look obvious to us talking about it right now.
"But I think Liam's done a tremendous job for them."
Formula 1 next hits The Strip for the Las Vegas Grand Prix, live on Sky Sports F1 from November 20-22. Stream Sky Sports with NOW
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Source: Sports
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